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Five Equipment Giants Beat, Raise & Sell Out: The HBM Signal
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Every major semiconductor equipment company beat earnings and raised guidance in the same cycle — here's what that means for AI hardware. From Onto Innovation's HBM chokepoint to ASML's $45B backlog, the capex supercycle is running on locked orders.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Five of the most critical semiconductor equipment companies on the planet all beat earnings in the same cycle, all raised guidance, and all report capacity sold out deep into next year. That's not a coincidence.
Start with the least-known name on the list, because it might be the most important. Onto Innovation posted record quarterly revenue of two hundred sixty-six point eight seven million dollars, and secured a two hundred forty million dollar volume agreement with an HBM maker running through twenty twenty-seven.
Lam Research posted five point eight four billion dollars in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal twenty twenty-six, up nearly twenty-four percent year on year. That's their fourth straight earnings beat.
ASML raised its full-year twenty twenty-six outlook and updated its twenty thirty model to target forty-four to sixty billion euros in revenue at fifty-six to sixty percent gross margins. Year-end backlog stands at forty-five point zero six billion dollars.
MediaTek's decision to support both TSMC's CoWoS and Intel's EMIB packaging technology is a more consequential move than it looks. MediaTek doubled its twenty twenty-six data center revenue forecast to two billion dollars and confirmed EMIB is under evaluation for Google custom chip designs.
India's NITI Aayog unveiled a ten-year semiconductor roadmap targeting a one hundred twenty to one hundred fifty billion dollar value chain by twenty thirty-five. The focus areas are advanced packaging, compound semiconductors, and design IP, rather than leading-edge logic fabrication.
The one risk worth keeping in mind across all of this is inventory front-loading. Customers may be accelerating orders ahead of potential tariff or export control changes.
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