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Intel's Worst Day Since 1974: Demand Is Real, Execution Isn't
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Intel's stock collapsed 28% despite a 78% surge in data centre revenue — supply bottlenecks, a fab accident in Israel, and Terafab choosing TSMC over Intel tell the full story. Samsung's record HBM4 profits show exactly what Intel is leaving on the table.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Intel just had its worst single trading day since nineteen seventy-four. The stock dropped twenty-eight point five eight percent, wiping out roughly one hundred and forty billion dollars in market value.
Intel acknowledged in its Q3 earnings that customer demand significantly exceeds capacity, and that constraint runs through at least twenty twenty-seven. The bottlenecks are specific.
Then there's the accident. An October incident at Intel's Israeli fab in Kiryat Gat halted ten nanometer server production for roughly two weeks.
The signal that landed hardest with investors came the day before earnings. Elon Musk's Terafab confirmed on October twenty-ninth that it's in active talks with TSMC for a dedicated fab, bypassing Intel entirely despite earlier partnership discussions.
There's a second damage vector that's less visible but equally serious. Intel's legacy PC business is deteriorating from an unexpected angle.
Samsung sits at the other end of this story. Its DS division posted record operating profit in Q3, driven by HBM four demand and server SSD sales.
The near-term signals worth tracking are straightforward. Does Intel announce a credible external foundry customer in the next two quarters, or does that timeline slip again?
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