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Semis in Bear Territory: Nvidia at $200, AMD's July 22 Test & Memory's Paradox
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has entered bear market territory, down 20% from its June peak — but TSMC just committed $265B to Arizona and HBM capacity is sold out. Today's briefing unpacks whether this selloff is a correction or a structural reset for AI hardware demand.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is now down twenty percent from its June peak. That puts it in technical bear market territory, and it happened fast.
Start with what didn't crack. TSMC this week committed an additional one hundred billion dollars to its Arizona operations, bringing the total pipeline to two hundred and sixty-five billion dollars.
AMD's seventeen percent drop from its five hundred and eighty-four dollar peak down to four hundred and eighty-six dollars looks steep. Several analysts raised price targets this week, some as high as seven hundred and twenty-five dollars, even as the stock fell.
The memory picture is the most paradoxical part of this week. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are operating in a sold-out environment.
Two separate pressures are building on Nvidia's competitive position. The first is Chinese AI.
Jensen Huang's visit to Japan this week produced a partnership with Noetra for a Vera Rubin AI factory, featuring thirteen thousand seven hundred and fifty Vera CPUs and twenty-seven thousand five hundred Rubin GPUs. Fanuc, Yaskawa, and Sony joined on robotics platforms.
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