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10.4M BTC Underwater, 13-Day ETF Bleed & the Leverage Cascade
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Over 10.4 million Bitcoin are now sitting at a loss — a historically significant on-chain threshold — while a 13-day ETF outflow streak has drained $4.4B from the market. Today's episode breaks down what Supply In Loss is signalling, why Arthur Hayes just de-risked, and whether this deleveraging cycle is truly finished.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Ten point four six million Bitcoin are currently underwater. That's more than half of the circulating supply sitting at a loss, and it's a number that's drawing serious attention from on-chain analysts this week, because historically, crossing that threshold has marked the floor.
Set that on-chain signal against what's happening in ETF flows, and the picture gets more complicated. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded net outflows for thirteen consecutive trading days, with total redemptions reaching four point four billion dollars.
The most direct expression of that defensive posture came from Arthur Hayes, whose fund Maelstrom liquidated its entire position in HYPE, roughly two hundred forty-seven thousand tokens worth around eighteen million dollars. Hayes cited three specific pressures: geopolitical energy shocks driving oil prices higher, a coming wave of tech IPOs from names like OpenAI and Anthropic absorbing institutional liquidity, and a cyclical peak window he's flagging through September.
And yet, while Hayes was selling, regulated products tracking HYPE were pulling in capital. Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares collectively attracted over one hundred fifty million dollars in inflows into HYPE-linked ETFs.
One more data point worth holding: twenty-four-hour liquidations exceeded one point three billion dollars in the sharpest single-day deleveraging of this cycle, with long liquidations accounting for over one billion of that. Four hundred fifty-seven million in Bitcoin alone, three hundred fifty-six million in Ethereum.
The metrics worth watching closely: whether ETF outflows stabilize or extend past two weeks, whether Supply In Loss continues climbing or plateaus, and whether the tech IPO calendar starts absorbing capital in a measurable way. Those three data points will tell you more about where this is heading than any single price move.
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