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Brent at $110, Fed Trapped & Hormuz Risk | May 2025
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
U.S. sanctions on Iran have pushed Brent crude past $110 and briefly above $120 intraday, forcing the Federal Reserve into a policy bind it can't solve with rate tools. Today's briefing breaks down the oil spike, the Fed's hawkish shift, bond market repricing, and what corporate earnings are hiding.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Brent crude hit one hundred ten dollars and forty-four cents a barrel today. That's a five point eight percent single-session move, and at one point the June contract briefly crossed one hundred twenty dollars.
The oil move landed directly in the Federal Reserve's inbox. The Fed held interest rates unchanged, which was expected.
The bond market responded faster than equities. The two-year Treasury yield jumped nine basis points to three point nine three percent.
The S&P five hundred finished the day down less than a tenth of a percent. The Nasdaq was slightly positive.
There's a structural tension here that's worth sitting with. The Fed's standard playbook for fighting inflation involves raising rates to cool demand.
The near-term watchpoints are narrow but important. First, whether Trump's review of the Iranian proposal produces any concrete movement.
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