Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz after Israel struck Lebanon, threatening 17% of global oil supply and pushing the fragile US-Iran memorandum to the brink. Switzerland talks continue under fire as the 60-day nuclear negotiating window shrinks fast.
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Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. That single move reversed nearly everything the diplomatic breakthrough of the past week had built.
Step back for a moment, because the speed of this breakdown is the real story. The Trump administration and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on June eighteenth and nineteenth.
Technical delegations from the US, Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar convened Sunday in Bürgenstock. These talks were originally scheduled for Friday.
The US-Israel relationship is under real strain. Vice President Vance issued a direct public warning to the Israeli cabinet this week, stating that attacking your only powerful ally has consequences.
The sixty-day negotiating window is supposed to resolve the core nuclear questions. Enrichment limits.
Two things will tell you whether this negotiation survives the next week. The first is whether Israel pauses operations in southern Lebanon, or whether US pressure short of actual aid cuts can produce any meaningful compliance.
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