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Taiwan Arms Paused, Lebanon Fractures & Xi-Putin Pipeline Stall | May 21
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Washington pauses a $14B Taiwan arms sale mid-negotiation with Beijing — a signal that alliance commitments are now bargaining chips. Plus: EU sanctions hold, Pakistan brokers Iran-US talks, and the Xi-Putin summit fails to close the Power of Siberia-2 deal.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
The United States just paused a fourteen billion dollar arms sale to Taiwan. That's not a logistical delay.
The same pattern is visible in the Indo-Pacific more broadly. The US and Philippines are close to finalizing a deal on a one-thousand-six-hundred-and-twenty-hectare economic security zone, part of the Pax Silica supply chain alliance that Manila joined in April.
While Washington uses commitments as chips, Brussels is holding a different line. EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis ruled out easing Russia sanctions, even with inflation pressures mounting and growth forecasts revised downward.
The Lebanon ceasefire is deteriorating. Israeli strikes killed at least twelve people in southern Lebanon over forty-eight hours, hitting Tyre and Nabatieh.
Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir held direct talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran. This is a deliberate positioning move.
Two other developments worth tracking. In the South Pacific, Solomon Islands elected Matthew Wale as prime minister on May fifteenth, replacing the PRC-aligned Jeremiah Manele.
The thread running through today's briefing is leverage. Who has it, who's using it, and who's discovering they have less than they thought.
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