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Seed Collapse, Mega-Rounds & Leverage Blowups | H1 2026
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
European seed funding cratered 44% in Q1 2026 while mega-rounds above €100M took over half of all deal value — a structural bifurcation with consequences landing in 2027. From Nscale's record €2.9B raise to Situational Awareness fund's forced liquidation, today's briefing maps where capital is concentrating and why it matters.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
European seed funding fell forty-four percent year-on-year in Q1 2026. That's not a dip.
Meanwhile, at the top of the market, capital is moving at historic scale. Mega-rounds, defined as deals above one hundred million euros, now represent more than fifty percent of H1 2026 deal value in Europe.
That premium on proof is exactly what destroyed Situational Awareness, the hedge fund built by twenty-five-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner on a leveraged bet on AI infrastructure. At peak, the fund held forty-five billion dollars in assets under management and a four-times leverage position across AI infrastructure stocks.
On a related front, Fundrise's Innovation Fund, trading under the ticker VCX, is down fifty-nine percent from its June peak, sitting at thirty-five dollars and fourteen cents. The critical date is August thirteenth, when restricted-share lockups expire for roughly one hundred thousand pre-IPO holders.
Chime cut one hundred and fifty jobs this week, roughly ten percent of its workforce, citing AI-driven efficiency gains. That makes it the latest in a pattern: Block cut more than four thousand positions, Visa cut seven percent, Mastercard followed.
One counterpoint worth registering: Y Combinator led eight New York City investments in Q2 2026, including a one hundred million dollar Series C for Nourish and a one hundred and ten million dollar Series C for Taktile. US growth hubs are still active.
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