The headline exit numbers look historic — but strip out SpaceX and the real picture is far darker for most founders and funds. Today's briefing covers capital concentration, SambaNova's $1B on-prem bet, Ukraine's DefenseTech IPO, and why emerging managers are being squeezed out.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
The venture exit market looks extraordinary right now. Two trillion, two hundred billion dollars in H1 twenty twenty-six.
The same distortion is happening on the funding side. US venture hit four hundred and twelve point seven billion dollars in the first half of twenty twenty-six, nearly thirty percent above all of twenty twenty-five.
One of the more telling signals in the funding data is SambaNova raising one billion dollars at an eleven billion dollar valuation for on-premise AI inference. JPMorgan Chase adopting the platform is the key detail.
Ukraine's startup ecosystem raised five hundred and twenty-six million dollars across twenty twenty-five, with eight unicorns now including Preply at one point two billion and monobank at one billion. That would be a reasonable emerging market story on its own.
There's a compounding risk underneath all of this that doesn't get enough attention. Experienced VC firms captured eighty-nine percent of H1 fund commitments, a record.
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