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ARM Crosses 50% at Hyperscalers & Nvidia's 49% China Cap
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Arm-based CPUs now hold over 50% of hyperscaler compute as Intel's data center wins clash with a $1.85B foundry loss and a 26% stock crash. Plus: Nvidia's informal cap on Chinese cloud customers and HBM sold out through 2026.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Intel just posted its strongest data center revenue growth in fifteen years. The stock fell twenty-six percent the same day.
Here's what makes Intel's position genuinely complicated. The data center momentum is real.
While Intel is managing its paradox, Arm is executing a structural shift that's moving faster than most observers expected. Arm-based CPU market share at hyperscalers went from fifteen percent in calendar twenty-twenty-four to over fifty percent by the end of twenty-twenty-five.
One of the more unusual developments this cycle involves Nvidia. The company directed global cloud providers to cap Chinese business at forty-nine percent of their customer base on future contracts, reserving the majority for non-Chinese customers.
Supply constraint is now the defining operational problem for AI builders outside the largest hyperscalers. HBM memory is effectively sold out through twenty-twenty-six.
The two metrics worth watching closely from here. First, any update on Fab28's recovery timeline and whether Intel revises its foundry customer guidance before the year closes.
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