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Nvidia's Supply Ceiling, AI Networking Boom & China's DRAM Push
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Nvidia's 70% FY28 guidance is a supply cap, not a demand forecast — and AI networking stocks are surging as the real bottleneck shifts upstream. Plus: China's CXMT and domestic DUV ambitions threaten Applied Materials' China revenue for good.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
Nvidia's CFO just told Wall Street to expect seventy percent revenue growth in fiscal twenty-eight, and the market celebrated. The important distinction is that number isn't a demand forecast.
The underlying demand picture is genuinely large. Data center revenue hit eighty-nine billion dollars in Q2, up a hundred and seventeen percent year over year.
On the same cycle, Arista, Broadcom, and Marvell all raised full-year guidance. That's not coincidence.
The story looks different from Applied Materials' position. The company pulled four-point-two billion dollars from China in the first half of fiscal twenty-six, roughly twenty-eight percent of total revenue.
CXMT, currently the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer, is running at roughly two hundred and ninety thousand wafers per month. By twenty-thirty, that capacity is expected to exceed six hundred thousand, which would put it ahead of Micron in physical wafer terms.
The near-term tests are specific. Watch whether Nvidia's gross margins recover in fiscal twenty-eight as guided, or whether sustained DRAM price pressure makes that recovery optimistic.
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