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Pension Capital, Megafund Dominance & Nous Research's $1.5B Open-Source Bet
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
European pension funds are moving into venture at scale, megafunds now control 72% of deal value, and Nous Research is testing whether open-source AI can support unicorn economics. Today's briefing covers the structural shifts reshaping startup and VC capital flows in H1 2026.
Audio is available on Spreaker — see link below.
European pension funds are finally moving. Aspire11, a Prague-based venture firm, has deployed the first one hundred million euros from its five hundred and fifteen million euro fund into companies including Revolut, ElevenLabs, Databricks, VAST Data, Vinted, and Baseten.
The concentration trend in venture has now been quantified, and the numbers are striking. Megafunds, those with over one billion dollars under management, captured seventy-two percent of deal value in the first half of twenty twenty-six.
Nous Research is in talks to raise seventy-five million dollars at a one point five billion dollar valuation, led by Robot Ventures. The company's Hermes AI agent has two hundred and fourteen thousand GitHub stars and has never charged for the core product.
One more figure worth holding. California drew over three hundred and thirty-five billion dollars in venture capital in the first half of twenty twenty-six, roughly ten times any other US state.
Three things to track. First, whether Nous Research closes its round and what valuation actually clears.
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